It’s only been a few days since the morning line odds were released, but Justify and Mendelssohn have already seen their 2018 Kentucky Derby odds shift dramatically. While Justify remains the go-to choice for most after a rousing performance in the Santa Anita Derby, his 3/1 number has actually gone up to 7/2 though he still stands as the top option.
The horse that is right behind him is Mendelssohn, who’s 2018 Kentucky Derby odds have stayed steady at 5/1 now has new – and very surprising – company in that range. My Boy Jack has gone from a 30/1 longshot and thundered to the front at 5/1. This could be for a lot of reasons, but the easiest is that one or two heavy handed bettors have come in hot. It’s hard to argue that My Boy Jack is worth that kind of mind boggling shift, but it’s happened. Do with that information what you will.
Bolt d’Oro has lost traction, moving from an 8/1 outsider to a 9/1 outsider, and his number will likely level out because he’s such a known commodity. However, he has all the same sort of landmarks that 2017 Kentucky Derby runner-up Classic Empire seemed to have as an early favorite as a two-year-old who faded as we approached the derby. There’s no reason not to like him. There are just more reasons to prefer Justify, who throttled him in their Santa Anita clash.
Curiously, the public has seemed to back off the raw Magnum Moon. The Arkansas Derby winner has seen his number double from a 6/1 to 13/1 currently and that’s largely because the sentiment surrounding him is that he’s not ready for the big stage. That’s a totally fair assessment, by the way.
2017 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile winner Good Magic has gone from a 12/1 midshot to an 8/1 consideration. The only other horse who has experienced a notable shift is Audible, who has been bet down from an 8/1 take to a 6/1 fourth choice. He’s bound to get more interest as the Florida Derby winner.
Lost in all of this is Mendelssohn, who I almost guarantee will have a major 2018 Kentucky Derby odds shift as major money streams in behind hi at the window. He’s probably the best horse of value to take right now, if you grade that there’s only value in a bet that has the chance to come true.
For most, this race has been a two-horse event since the final field was decided. Mendelssohn and Justify are so elite compared to their rivals, that the most logical bet seems to be an exacta box on the two of them. If you’re feeling really daring, I actually love a Justify-Mendelssohn-Audible trifecta. Those three seem to be the best of the bunch by a longshot. For whatever it’s worth, I don’t totally trust this cosmic shift on My Boy Jack’s 2018 Kentucky Derby odds.
The 2018 Kentucky Derby will go live on Saturday, May 5th as the 12th race of the day. Coverage starts at 2:30pm ET on NBC and you can also watch on the official wagering partner of the derby with the TwinSpiresTV app, while simultaneously making wagers.
144th Kentucky Derby – Saturday, May 5th at Churchill Downs
1 1/4 Miles – 3 Year Olds – $2,000,000
|1||Firenze Fire (FL)||Paco Lopez||126||Jason Servis||50/1|
|2||Free Drop Billy (KY)||Robby Albarado||126||Dale L. Romans||30/1|
|3||Promises Fulfilled (KY)||Corey J. Lanerie||126||Dale L. Romans||30/1|
|4||Flameaway (ON)||Jose Lezcano||126||Mark E. Casse||30/1|
|5||Audible (NY)||Javier Castellano||126||Todd A. Pletcher||8/1|
|6||Good Magic (KY)||Jose L. Ortiz||126||Chad C. Brown||12/1|
|7||Justify (KY)||Mike E. Smith||126||Bob Baffert||3/1|
|8||Lone Sailor (KY)||James Graham||126||Thomas M. Amoss||50/1|
|9||Hofburg (KY)||Irad Ortiz, Jr.||126||William I. Mott||20/1|
|10||My Boy Jack (KY)||Kent J. Desormeaux||126||J. Keith Desormeaux||30/1|
|11||Bolt d’Oro (KY)||Victor Espinoza||126||Mick Ruis||8/1|
|12||Enticed (KY)||Junior Alvarado||126||Kiaran P. McLaughlin||30/1|
|13||Bravazo (KY)||Luis Contreras||126||D. Wayne Lukas||50/1|
|14||Mendelssohn (KY)||Ryan L. Moore||126||Aidan P. O’Brien||5/1|
|15||Instilled Regard (KY)||Drayden Van Dyke||126||Jerry Hollendorfer||50/1|
|16||Magnum Moon (KY)||Luis Saez||126||Todd A. Pletcher||6/1|
|17||Solomini (KY)||Flavien Prat||126||Bob Baffert||30/1|
|18||Vino Rosso (KY)||John R. Velazquez||126||Todd A. Pletcher||12/1|
|19||Noble Indy (KY)||Florent Geroux||126||Todd A. Pletcher||30/1|
|20||Combatant (KY)||Ricardo Santana, Jr.||126||Steven M. Asmussen||50/1|
|21||Blended Citizen (KY)||Kyle Frey||126||Doug F. O’Neill||50/1|